Bets thatactually hit.

Profitable on NBA

AI-powered probability model for sports betting. No parlays. No BS.

Get Today's Free Pick
See the full record →50+ subscribers
—profit on flat $100/pick
—
Season Record
—
Win Rate
—
ROI
$82$936$1,791$2,645$3,500Pick 1Pick 204

Recent verified picks

✓Celtics -2.5+$91
✓Bucks -7.0+$91
✗Pistons -3.5-$100
✓Prairie View +3.5+$91
✓Vanderbilt +8.0+$91
✓Knicks U227.5+$91
✗Auburn -6.0-$100
✓Spurs -8.5+$91
✓Rockets U209.5+$91
✓Lakers +4.5+$91
✗Wichita St +5.5-$100
✗Iowa St -3.0-$100
✓Celtics -2.5+$91
✓Bucks -7.0+$91
✗Pistons -3.5-$100
✓Prairie View +3.5+$91
✓Vanderbilt +8.0+$91
✓Knicks U227.5+$91
✗Auburn -6.0-$100
✓Spurs -8.5+$91
✓Rockets U209.5+$91
✓Lakers +4.5+$91
✗Wichita St +5.5-$100
✗Iowa St -3.0-$100

Everything you need. Nothing you don't.

A probability model that finds where sportsbooks are off — then tells you exactly where to bet.

Today's Edge Finder

Every game scored by the model. See the probability, the edge over the book, and the confidence tier — before you bet.

Liberty -3.5✓ HIT
HIGH72%
+22% EV edge
Suns +3.5
HIGH58%
+7.1% EV edge
St. Thomas +1.5
HIGH65%
+15.6% EV edge

The Model

XGBoost + Random Forest ensemble. 49 features. Trained on every ATS result this season.

Model Stack
XGBoost55%+Random Forest45%
ATS cover features13 features
Line movement signals8 features
Team performance metrics22 features
Historical matchup data6 features
Walk-forward validated · Retrained weekly · No curve-fitting

Best Line, Every Time

We tell you which book has the best number. Stop leaving money on the table.

BOOKLINEODDS
DraftKingsBEST-3.5-108
FanDuel-3-110
BetMGM-3.5-115
Caesars-3-110
We scan 12 books every run so you always get the best number.

Instant Alerts

Picks delivered the second they lock. Never miss an edge.

📱
SMSText to your phone
3:02 PM
✈️
TelegramChannel + DM
3:02 PM
📧
EmailDaily slate digest
2:00 PM

Verified Record

Every pick posted before tip-off. Every result public. We don't delete losses.

W
L
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
L
W
W
117-8757.1%
Pre-game timestamps·175 picks tracked·Since Feb 4

Why Baseline wins

Most cappers sell you BS. We sell proven models backed by math.

Typical X Capper
Win Rate48-51%
Units Profit-2.1u
Track RecordHidden
Method"Trust me bro"
BaselineYOU ARE HERE
Win Ratebento-cmp-wr
Units Profit+16.1u
Track Recordbento-cmp-record
MethodXGBoost model

Confidence Tiers

Not all edges are equal. Higher tier = bigger edge = more conviction.

HIGH65%+ prob
62.1% WR+8.3% EV
47 picks this season
MEDIUM55-65% prob
57.4% WR+5.1% EV
89 picks this season
STANDARD52-55% prob
53.2% WR+3.2% EV
39 picks this season

How It Works

From odds to pick in seconds. Fully automated, no human bias.

📡
Fetch odds12 books scanned
🧠
Run model49 features scored
📊
Calculate edgeModel prob vs implied
✅
Publish pickTimestamped, public

Recent Results

Here's what you missed

Recent picks from the model. Wins and losses — we show everything.

NBA

Miami Heat +5

Loss

-1.0u
NBA

Charlotte Hornets -17.5

Win

+0.91u
NBA

New York Knicks -8.5

Loss

-1.0u
MLB

New York Yankees ML

Win

+0.91u
NBA

Miami Heat +3

Win

+0.91u
NBA

Dallas Mavericks +11.5

Win

+0.91u
Get today's picks

One winning bet pays for itself

Most cappers charge $200-300/mo for worse records. See ours.

Most Popular

ProFULL ACCESS

Full model access. Every pick, every edge.

7

Try Pro free for 7 days

Full access, cancel anytime. No risk.

$29/month

One winning bet pays for itself

  • Full daily slate (3-5 picks)
  • Model probability + EV edge on every pick
  • Confidence tiers (HIGH / MEDIUM / STANDARD)
  • Best book + line for each pick
  • Real-time odds from 12 sportsbooks
  • Full pick history + verified results
  • Model analysis + reasoning
  • SMS & Telegram alerts

7-day free trial

•

No risk

•

7-day money-back guarantee

+50

Join 50++ subscribers beating the books

New picks dropping daily — start your free trial

Picks are dropping
right now.

117-87 on the season. Every pick public. Join the bettors who stopped guessing and started using probability.

Get Today’s Free Pick

No credit card required. Takes 30 seconds.

FAQ

Common
Questions

Baseline's probability model scans every NBA and NCAAB game daily. When the model's win probability diverges enough from the sportsbook's implied odds, that's an edge. Qualifying picks appear in the Edge Finder with the line, best book, EV edge, and confidence tier.